Bias Tracker

Log • Analyze • Calibrate

What are you logging?

Your Confidence Level 50%

Show Adjusted Calibration

Active & Resolved Log

Include Trivia Data

0 items

Analysis Dashboard

Include Trivia Data

Accuracy

N/A

0 events

Average Error

N/A

Waiting for Data

Overall Bias

N/A

Waiting for Data

Calibration Curve

Matches your stated confidence to your actual historical hit rate.

Monte Carlo Simulation

100 Trials

Enter a prediction confidence below to see the simulated distribution of actual hits based on your historically calibrated win rate.

Prediction Confidence 50%

Baseline Calibration

0 Recorded

Fast-Track Your Baseline

Select the confidence level of your answer honestly, they will be saved to your history to calibrate your baseline.

How to Calibrate Your Mind

Calibration is the alignment between your confidence and reality. If you are perfectly calibrated, things you predict with 70% confidence should happen exactly 70% of the time.

1. Find Your Bias

Being chronically overconfident causes bad risks. Being underconfident misses opportunities.

2. Log Consistently

Force yourself to put a real percentage on your gut feelings before the event happens.

3. Train the Brain

Review your history to mathematically prove your edges and auto-correct your intuition.

Standard Logging Formats

Consistency is key. Use the following structures to log your predictions and decisions effectively.

Predictions

I'm [X]% sure oil prices will drop to $50 by next month.

Decisions

I'm [X]% sure quitting my job is a good idea.

Sports

I'm [X]% sure Stephen Curry will score 30 points.